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China’s BRI Transportation Investments: Development Bonanza or Debt Trap?
Jin Gang (金刚)*and Shen Kunrong (沈坤荣)
School of Economics, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Abstract: Based on the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT) database of 2005- 2018, this paper creates a country-sector-year panel set for a study on the BRI’s investment effects on the transportation sector of BRI countries using the difference-in-differences- in-differences (DDD) method. Our study finds that the BRI has significantly increased transportation investments by Chinese companies in the BRI countries without causing significant rise in problem transactions. The “debt trap” narrative that the BRI aims to take control over host countries’ sovereign rights in exchange for debt write-offs is not supported by evidence. Discussions on sub-samples reveal that the BRI has mainly propelled SOEs in making transportation investments to generate development effects in host countries, most of which are Asian countries, and that the preferred mode of investment is cross-border M&As.
Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, transportation investment, development effect, debt trap
JEL Classification Codes: L74, H40, O20 DOI: 10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2020.09.03
