Multi-Polar Evolution of Global Inventive Talent Flow Network—An Endogenous Migration Model and Empirical Analysis

Zheng Jianghuai1, 2, Sun Dongqing*2, Dai Wei3, Shi Lei1, 4

1 Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center, Nanjing University， Nanjing, China

2 School of Economics, Nanjing University

3 School of International Economics and Business, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics (NUFE)， Nanjing, China

4 School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics (NUFE)

Abstract: The global clustering of inventive talent shapes innovation capacity and drives economic growth. For China, this process is especially crucial in sustaining its development momentum. This paper draws on data from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database (PATSTAT) to extract global inventive talent mobility information and analyzes the spatial structural evolution of the global inventive talent flow network. The study finds that this network is undergoing a multi-polar transformation, characterized by the rising importance of a few central countries—such as the United States, Germany, and China—and the increasing marginalization of many peripheral countries. In response to this typical phenomenon, the paper constructs an endogenous migration model and conducts empirical testing using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM). The results reveal several endogenous mechanisms driving global inventive talent flows, including reciprocity, path dependence, convergence effects, transitivity, and cyclic structures, all of which contribute to the network’s multi-polar trend. In addition, differences in regional industrial structures significantly influence talent mobility choices and are a decisive factor in the formation of poles within the multi-polar landscape. Based on these findings, it is suggested that efforts be made to foster two-way channels for talent exchange between China and other global innovation hubs, in order to enhance international collaboration and knowledge flow. We should aim to reduce the migration costs and institutional barriers faced by R&D personnel, thereby encouraging greater mobility of high-skilled talent. Furthermore, the government is advised to strategically leverage regional strengths in high-tech industries as a lever to capture competitive advantages in emerging technologies and products, ultimately strengthening the country’s position in the global innovation landscape.

Keywords: Inventive talent flow network; multipolarity; spatial structural evolution; regional industrial structure disparities; temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM)

JEL Classification Codes: D85, F22, J15, J24, J31, O31

DOI: 10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2025.07.04