Forging the Belt and Road Initiative: From the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan

Li Xiangyang*

National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (NIIS-CASS)

Abstract: Utilizing the three-dimensional framework of hard, soft, and people-topeople connectivity, this study evaluates the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)’s progress during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period and charts strategic directions for the 15th FYP period. Connectivity forms the BRI’s core logic: hard connectivity provides the physical infrastructure, soft connectivity provides institutional support, and people-to-people connectivity constitutes the social foundation—together forming an interdependent whole. Notably, the 14th FYP period marked both the inaugural phase of high-quality BRI cooperation and a pivotal shift from infrastructure dominance toward institutional integration. Despite severe COVID-19 disruptions, the initiative’s achievements have remained substantial and widely recognized. Looking to the 15th FYP period, amid a volatile international political and security environment, high-quality BRI development will prioritize soft connectivity while promoting coordinated progress across all three dimensions. Guided by extensive consultation, joint contributions, and shared benefits—alongside a balanced approach to righteousness and profit—the initiative will pursue steady, pragmatic advancement. Specifically, it will emphasize security-oriented hard connectivity, refine institutional mechanisms for soft connectivity, and highlight “small yet smart” projects for people-to-people connectivity. These efforts collectively aim to deliver high-standard, sustainable, and livelihood-centered development.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); Hard connectivity; Soft connectivity;

JEL Classification Codes: O19; F35

DOI: 10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2026.02.04