Statistical Analysis on Supply of Farmers-Turned-Laborers

Zhang Zheng

Abstract:

Though there are a great number of surplus laborers in rural China, demand for farmers-turned laborers aged 25 and below, especially female, exceeds supply. In the near future, there will concurrently be both a shortage of young laborers and a surplus of middle-aged and old laborers in rural China. The shortage of farmers-turned-laborers will constrain the growth rate of labor-intensive export manufacturing in China. That is the conclusion from an estimate of the rural labor surplus and the labor force from farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, with analysis of statistical data, and quantity of rural labor force supply and demand at both aggregate level, and the level of specific ages and sex.

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