Structural labor shortage amid labor surpluses

ZHONG Yu and LAN Haitao

Research Assistant and Ph.D., Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Associate Research Fellow and Division Chief, Institute of Industrial and Technological Economics, National Development and Reform Commission
Abstract:

This paper presents a summary of the characteristics of China’s rural labor force based on data from the 1996 and 2006 agriculture censuses. In this paper, we re-estimate, compare and analyze China’s rural labor surplus at national and provincial levels using the labor-hour conversion method and the standard structural approach. Taking economic cycle fluctuations into account, we also investigate the root causes for the co-existence of a migrant worker shortage and an agricultural labor surplus. Our study indicates that we can make realistic judgments about rural labor supply and demand only by removing short-term disturbing factors associated with economic boom and bust cycles.

Key Words: rural labor, labor-hour conversion method, standard structural approach, economic cycle

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