Labor Force Participation Rates in China: Present and Future*

7月 22, 2016

in : 2010 , 2010-6

MA Zhongdong1 ，LU Zhihao2 and YE Kongjia3

1 Professor with Department of Social Sciences of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
2 Intern Analyst of Population and Sustainable Development Center
3 Advisor of Population and Sustainable Development Center of Fok Ying Tung Research Institute

Abstract:

This paper describes the changes in China’s total population, labor force age structure and labor force participation rate (LFPR). Based on census data, this paper assesses the age pattern and changes in the LFPR, examines factors affecting the LFPR through modeling, and predicts the trends of labor force development to 2050. We find that the labor force has been growing rapidly at an average annual rate of 6 percent from 1980 to 2005 due to improvements in competency and structure. On the other hand, the overall LFPR declined mainly due to prolonged education that slashed the LFPR among adolescents. The age pattern of labor force participation is in the shape of an inverted-U curve.

Results from a Logit regression model of labor participation indicate that labor force participation intensity is higher in the South than in the North and higher among the male population than among the female population. Presuming that the total fertility rate climbs to 2.0, life expectancy increases by ten years, and delayed retirement age lengthen the duration of labor participation.

We have made the following forecasts: (1) China’s future working age population will decrease; (2) labor force will experience zero growth within 15 years and then negative growth; (3) the middle-aged and elderly populations will account for a significant share of the labor force. It is important to explore ways to increase, train and use human resources and increase the LFPR and productivity. In today’s China, regional or structural labor force shortage has already emerged. With an ageing population, China should take proactive measures by relaxing its birth policy, increasing education and training, promoting labor flow, and increasing the LFPR among the middle-aged, particularly women, so as to prevent severe shocks from a diminishing labor force.

Key words:

labor force, LFPR, labor force projection

¥0.01加入购物车