Exchange rate reform: progress, challenges and prospects

CHEN Dongqi1 (陈东琪), ZHANG Anyuan1 (张岸元) and WANG Yuan1 (王元)
1 Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission
Abstract: For three decades China has followed an incremental approach in renminbi exchange rate reform. During this period, the exchange rate system has gone through five stages of evolution: i) a “basket peg” exchange rate regime; ii) a dual-track system; iii) exchange rate convergence; iv) a “unitary pegged” exchange rate regime; and v) a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism is a complex engineering project influenced by numerous factors such as the economic development mode, industrial structure, basic economic system, market system condition, financial and macroeconomic policy system as well as the new advantages arising from opening-up initiatives. Since 2005, China has achieved substantial success in reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism but still faces a plethora of issues. To address these issues, China should strengthen the role of the market in the exchange rate formation process and gradually push for the free convertibility of the renminbi under the capital account. Amidst the raging global financial crisis, China should further adapt to the diversification of the international monetary system and aggressively proceed with renminbi regionalization and internationalization.

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