Prospects for an Eastward Shift of the Global Economic Center

LI Xiangyang

Director and Professor, Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Abstract: The rapid growth of Asian economies and their rising share of the global economy give rise to a prevailing view that the global economic center is moving eastward. At least over the next decade, however, Asia is unlikely to become the global economic center. There are multiple reasons for this. First, insufficient demands from end consumers will make it difficult to reduce Asian economies’ reliance on other markets for exports. Second, Asian economies’ continued growth will be constrained both by insufficient innovation and by future global climate change regulations. Because of international labor division, moreover, it will be increasingly difficult to achieve leapfrog development. Third, there are several obstacles to building an integrated Asian market; these will prevent Asian economies from shaping a common ground regarding international affairs. If Asian countries are unable to make breakthroughs in these three areas, the global economic system may exhibit asymmetrical “dual centers”, i.e, a global manufacturing center in Asia and a global financial center in Europe and America.

Key Words: global economic center of gravity, international economic rules, Asian economy

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