China’s Industrial Economy: History and Trends

YUAN Lei

Institute of Industrial Economics, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Abstract: Since 2010, China’s industrial economy has exhibited a stable growth pattern. Although industrial growth slowed, quality and efficiency showed improvement. In the post-crisis era, the growth rate and mechanism of China’s industries will take on some new features: First, the industrial economy will enter a stage of slow growth. Second, industrial upgrading will become the driver of industrial growth. Third, the boundary between sunrise and sunset industries will become blurred. Last but not least, industrial relocation will speed up. China’s industrial operation is now facing ever-increasing challenges rather than favorable factors. Forecasts based on VAR and SARIMA models suggest that in 2011, China’s industries will enter a slow growth stage at around 12.4 per cent. The central government should lower industrial growth expectations, speed up the technological upgrading of conventional industries, develop strategic emerging industries, and advance corporate mergers and restructuring.

Key words: slow growth, industrial upgrading, technological upgrading, strategic emerging industries

¥0.01加入购物车