Forecasting grain production costs in the backdrop of economic cycles

LAN Haitao(蓝海涛) and JIANG Changyun(姜长云)
Institute of Industrial Economics and Technical Economics, the National Development and Reform Commission

Abstract:
This research indicates that with the changes in economic cycles, China’s production costs are experiencing “wave
shaped” spiral growth. From 2004 to 2008, China’s grain production costs increased rapidly, with the primary driving force the rapid growth of labor, land and material costs. In the middle stage of industrialization, China’s grain
production costs will experience spiral growth following economic cyclical fluctuations, entering relative stability
after a certain period. From 2009 to around 2012, grain production costs will drop, but average production costs may
be higher than in the current upward cycle. From 2013 to around 2020, grain production costs will rise again and be
much higher than in the current upward cycle.
Keywords:
economic cycle, grain production cost, changes, trending

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