China’s Optimal Industrial Structure: Theoretical Model and Econometric Estimation

Xiao Xingzhi ,Peng Yizhong  and Li Shaolin

Center for Industrial & Business Organization, DUFE, Dalian, China

Abstract:  With analysis of producer’s and factor supplier’s dual optimization motives, this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation. Result of estimation of China’s optimal industrial structure between 1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China’s economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure. Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets, optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade.
Key words: optimal industrial structure, optimal growth rate, stochastic discount factor

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