Does Anyone Benefit? -A Quantitative Effect Analysis on US Punitive Tariffs on Chinese PV Imports from a Global Perspective*

Xiang Hongjin  and Lai Mingyong
Business School, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University

 
Abstract: This paper first examines the internal mechanism of effect of anti-dumping trade relief measures on output, employment, trade, return and social welfare of various countries from a global perspective by embedding the punitive tariff variable into calculable regional equilibrium GSIM model. Then, based on relevant data of global PV manufacturing and trade in 2011 and using GSIM model, the paper conducts a predicative simulation for the economic effects of US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy sanctions against Chinese PV products on China, the US and other countries at the industry level. Simulation result indicates that if the U.S. levies a 34.8% punitive tariff on involved Chinese PV products, China’s PV export to the US will be slashed by 57%, US domestic PV output will increase by 10.7% and China and the US will suffer welfare losses in the amounts of 250 million US dollars and 630 million US dollars respectively while the social welfare of other countries will increase to different levels.
Keywords: PV products, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy sanctions, GSIM model, trade effect, welfare effect.

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