How Long Can China’s Economy Keep Growing?*

Zhang Jun
China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Abstract: Since 2010, there has been renewed discussion on China’s economic future. After 30 years of breakneck economic growth, China’s position in the world economy is more important than ever and people must understand how China’s economic dominance will change the world economy. Some economists who are bearish about China’s future believe that China’s growth engine will lose fire in the next two or three years. To address their predictions about China’s future, the author will address three themes: (1) Why did China manage to grow so rapidly? (2) How long will China keep growing? (3) Can China’s economy keep growing in the future? By analyzing the theory of inadequate consumer demand in China and by evaluating the general patterns of China’s basic advantages in education, technology and human capital and industrial upgrading, the author explicitly argue why it is unlikely for China to fall into the “middle-income trap.”
Key words: economic growth, convergence hypothesis, capital accumulation, technology progress, China

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