How will Population Aging Affect Economic Growth?

CAI Fang1 (蔡日方) and WANG Meiyan2 (王美艳)

1Director and Professor at the Institute of Population and Labour Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
2Associate Professor at the Institute of Population and Labour Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Editorial note:

Not long ago, the problem of an aging population only emerged in developed countries once per capita GDP had reached a relatively high level. However, in today’s China, although the per capita GDP has remained low, the problem of growing old before becoming rich is looming. As China is not yet prosperous, economic development needs to be persistently upheld; however, will the aging problem cause economic growth to be challenged by labour shortages in the future? From a structural perspective, although continuous rural labour transfer can ease demand for urban labour, the problem now is that rural labourers are not always qualified to take on positions requiring ever-advancing skills, resulting in a skills drought. It could be claimed that this skills drought is due to a lack of education on the part of rural workers, yet university students with a formal education also encounter difficulties when hunting for a job. Does this indicate that the current education structure should be revised?

The above questions suggest that China is currently facing a complicated and delicate situation with regard to the interrelated problems of economy, population, employment and education, and will continue to do so for a long period in the future. These problems require the cautious planning of overall and sustainable policies. The two “Domestic Column” articles this issue offer in-depth analyses of these problems and provide valuable policy suggestions.

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