Reexamining China’s Demographic Transition and Age Structure

Ma Yingtong ( 马瀛通 )
China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing, China

 
Abstract: This paper discusses the shortcomings of Western theories on demographic transition by comparing transitions in demographic structure for Europe and China. This paper further proposes several criteria for judging the direction of demographic transition and whether or not it has finished. Apart from establishing new theories of demographic transition and the trasition of demographic structure, this paper differentiates the concepts of “relative surplus population” and “relative suitable population,” and “relative insufficient population” and identifies key demographic differences along the way. In doing so, this paper argues that China’s demographic structure is undergoing a process of rebalancing.
Key words: relative surplus population, demographic transition, trasition of demographic structure, unstable population, quasi-stationary population

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