Study forecasts overall price rise in 2010 at 2%

WANG Shuangzheng

Ph.D. of Economics and Senior Economist

Price Monitoring Center, National Development and Reform Commission

Abstract:
In this paper, the author first introduces the background of and measures for the current investment expansion plan the central government adopted. The author then makes a historical comparative analysis of some overheated investments that appeared after the reform and opening and investment expansion plans adopted during the Asian financial crisis, as well as their respective impacts on overall price. Based on that, the author makes a conjoint analysis of current investment expansion’s impact on overall price from the perspective of price constraints like investment structure, current production capacity in basic industries, supply-and-demand relationship affecting price transmission between upstream and downstream products, market expectation and international market price. After that, some important problems meriting close attention in implementing the investment expansion policy are pointed out. Finally, the author puts forward some policy suggestions in light of the current national situation regarding strengthening investment control and guidance, expanding residential consumption, carrying out proactive and prudent price reform, and intensifying price monitoring, forecast and early warning as well as market supervision.

Key words:
investment expansion, overall price, economic growth, private investment, stimulating consumption

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