An Analysis of the Increase of CO2 Emissions in China: Based on an SDA technique

GUO Chaoxian1

Associate Professor of Institute of Industrial Economics, Deputy Director of Industrial Organization Division, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China

Abstract: This paper creates an extended import-competitive economy – energy – environmental input/output model and employs a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) approach based on double-layer nested structural formulae to break down China’s carbon dioxide emissions growth between 1992 and 2007 from three perspectives: the overall economy, by-industry and by industrial sectors. Analysis results indicate that the energy intensity effect remains the biggest factor behind carbon emissions reduction. This paper also found that between 2002 and 2007, China’s carbon emissions growth obviously accelerated compared to the previous period, which indicates a “high carbon” tendency in the new round of industrialization. Therefore, in addition to developing a circular economy and clean production, accelerating the phasing out of backward capacities, and developing new energies, China should further encompass the positive role of energy intensity.

Key words: CO2 emissions, structural decomposition analysis (SDA), change effect of energy consumption intensity, change effect of the input/output coefficient

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