China’s Economic Outlook into 2030: Transformation, Simulation and Policy Suggestions

ZHANG Ping and WANG Hongmiao

Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China
Abstract:

This article discusses China’s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to optimize spatial allocation and promote urbanization, but distorted urbanization must be avoided as it will only perpetuate the current problems. The core strategy is to change government behavior to allow the market to allocate resources. It is important to maintain stable growth in the short term and balance the economic structure in the medium- and long-term. In particular, optimizing spatial allocation must constitute a critical part of the policy adjustment. Only with a viable urbanization model can the country shift from the catch-up pursuit via industrialization to a balanced approach of sustainable growth. This can be done through gradual guidance and policy corrections. China should continue to uphold the “scientific concept of development” as the overarching principle governing socioeconomic development, and create a unique approach to sustainability where the economy grows steadily, sharing is universal and people live in harmony with nature.

Key words: balanced structure, economic growth, sustainable development, urbanization, technological advances

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