China’s grave demographic challenges in coming decades

REN Qiang (任强)1, ZHENG Xiaoying (郑晓瑛)2, Wolfgang Lutz3 and Sergei Scherbov4
1,2 Demographic Research Institute, Peking University
3,4 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Abstract:
This paper systematically analyzes the uncertainties of major demographic indicators from China’s 2000 census, such as fertility, gender ratio at birth, and age structure, and through a probability demographic forecast gives an assessment of the situation facing the country. Research outcomes suggest that great differences exist in the estimate of China’s fertility, gender ratio at birth and low-age child population. These differences directly affect China’s current and future demographic uncertainties, and have implications for policy and future research. The demographic uncertainties caused by current conditions are of great value to decision-makers and the public alike.
Key words:
Uncertainty; Demographic trend; Demographic probability forecast

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