Lewisian Turning Points in China: an Empirical Application of the Minami Criteria

QIN Tao , YANG Shiyuan and YUE Longhua

1 Professor at the School of Business Administration at Southwest University of Finance Economics
2 Doctoral Candidate at Southwest University of Finance Economics; Lecturer at Sichuan Agricultural University

3 Doctoral Candidate at Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Lecturer at Sichuan Agricultural University

Abstract: Widespread shortages of migrant labor in China have aroused acrimonious debate about whether the economy has arrived at the Lewisian turning point, which would have significant implications

for policymakers. We collected panel data from China’s 31 provinces2 over the period 1990 to 2009 and conducted empirical test according to Minami’s criteria. Our results indicate that China’s economy has passed the first Lewisian turning point but do not provide evidence that China has reached the second

Lewisian turning point.

Key words: Lewisian turning point, shortage point, commercial point

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