Simulated Scenarios for China’s Economic Growth: 2011-2030

LI Shantong , LIU Yunzhong , XU Zhaoyuan  and HE Jianwu

Development Research Center, China

Abstract: Considering domestic and international impact on economic growth, this paper adopts a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate three scenarios for China’s economic growth. Results indicate that during the 12th Five-year Plan period (2011-2015), China’s economic growth is expected to reach 8 per cent and enjoy great potential for rapid growth in the mid- and long-term run. Future economic growth is mainly confronted by the risk of unbalanced economic development and growing resources and environmental pressures. Whether this potential is tapped depends on China’s achievements in transforming its development pattern.

Key Words: economic growth, 12th Five-year Plan, computable general equilibrium
(CGE) model, energy intensity

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