Tracing China’s Low Carbon Development Path to 2050: Energy demand analysis and carbon emissions scenarios1

DAI Yande , ZHU Yuezhong  and BAI Quan

National Development and Reform Commission, Energy Research Institute Task Force
Abstract:

Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges to humanity in the 21st century. With China’s continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the world economy, prospects of China’s energy demands, energy supply roadmap and related carbon emissions have become the focus of various organizations. By applying a scenario analysis, this report analyzes and forecasts China’s energy demands and carbon emissions trends over the coming thirty to fifty years. Results indicate that under certain conditions, it will be possible for China to take on a low carbon development path with Chinese characteristics. However, China needs overall adjustments in policy, institutions, structure, technology as well as strong support from international economic and political environments.

Key Words:

energy demand, energy efficiency, scenario analysis, low carbon, climate change, sustainable development

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