Chinese and US Economies in Comparison and Interaction: Now and Future as China Economist Surveys

Li Gang1 and Li Oumei2

Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS

School of Economics, Minzu University of China

Abstract: China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between Chinas and the United States’ economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries’ economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US: while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in Chinas competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20 years, Chinas economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, Chinas economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. Chinas manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trumps “first 100 days” in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more corifident about Chinas debt sustainability in comparison with the US.

Keywords: China-US interaction, China-US trade, China-US cooperation, competitiveness, Trump administration
JEL classification: F01;010;057
DOl: 1 0.19602/j .chinaeconomist.20 17.04.06

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