China’s Manufacturing amid New Industrialization in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Research Group of the Institute of Industrial Economics (IIE), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing, China

Abstract: Driven by a new round of technological and industrial revolution, China’s manufacturing industry is heading towards green, intelligent, service-based and customized development. In light of the new technological revolution and evolving industrial development model, we need to revise and breathe new life into the traditional industrialization theory. When assessing a country’s industrial development, we should use the level of industrial technology, instead of the proportion of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, as the key criterion. In addition, the level of modern industrial development should be determined according to the degree of digital, network-based, and smart features. The new industrialization theory should employ knowledge-intensive complex labor to replace simple labor as the labor factor input in the production function, and include data as a new factor of production in the analytical framework. We should also define natural resources and the environment and greenhouse gas emissions as hard constraints of the production function. In the comparison of smart, service-based and green development levels of China’s, the US’ and Japan’s manufacturing sectors, our results suggest that China lags far behind developed countries in terms of the level of industrial development. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s manufacturing industry should shift from quantitative expansion to digital and smart innovations and applications, modernize the industrial system, promote industrial integration, and broaden its horizon from domestic regional planning to the global value chain.

Keywords: new industrialization, new technology revolution, manufacturing outlook

JEL classification code: O14, O21, O38P21
DOI: 10.19602/j .chinaeconomist.2020.07.02

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