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China’s Economic Growth and HighQuality Development: 2020-2035
Liu Wei 1 and Chen Yanbin2 *
1 Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
2 School of Economics, Renmin University of China; Key Research Base for National Economics Textbook Development
Abstract:The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal. During this period, China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization. To accomplish this goal, China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035. However, by the current growth trajectory, China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8% over the period between 2020-2035. This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve. Even when in a high-quality development stage, China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality. Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other. To ramp up economic growth potentials, China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers. To improve economic growth quality, household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential, not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets, i.e. “dual circulations.” With appropriate policy response, China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035, marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.
Keywords:economic growth, growth potentials, high-quality development, one of world’s biggest markets, dual circulations
JEL classification code: E17, E61, O11P21
DOI: 10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2021.01.01
